Thursday, November 20, 2014

The Economics of Disrespect Update I

The Economics of Disrespect   Update I

Andre Willers
20 Nov 2014
Synopsis :
Compare actual ships on the seas with the Baltic Dry Index . Secret trade 4.63 times (463%) of reported trade is deduced . Taxation bases vanish and stimulatory measures seemingly don’t work , but they probably do . The good news just never reaches the Taxman’s ears .

Discussion :
1.This is not a conspiracy .
It is simply like-minded business people coming to the same conclusion . It looks like collusion , but is not .

2.The Data for the actual ships is from a new study by J . Tournadre
See Appendix A .

The Graphs are from early previews . See
J. Tournadre
Article first published online: 17 NOV 2014 | DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061786

3.The Baltic Dry Index chart from Bloomberg . the charts .
The parting of the ways seems to be 2008 .
What happened ?
Freezing of all credit , and thus trade , is what happened . This was the fault of the banks . Their greed and stupidity .

5.Reasonable businessmen then independently sought to bypass these unreliable institutions , leaving them to wither on the vine .
This was helped along by the excellent , secure communications .
Remember , Dunbar’s limit has been broken

The “official Economy” , like Baltic Dry Index , simply shrank and shrank .

6.Is there a Dark Baltic Index ?
I doubt it .
It is more like the Dark Pools of capital that bypass the exchanges in private deals .
There are many , not one . And they cannot be unified by their very nature .
7. Big Business has lost any respect for bankers and government regulatory attempts .

Look at the graphs for yourself .

7.1 Actual ships counted .

7.2 Baltic Dry Index .

8.Estimate of real Baltic Dry Index:
Taking 2005  (BDI=2500) as a non-exuberant year , and ratio up by est number ships .
nShips 2005 = 40 000
nShips 2012 = 80 000
Growth since 2012 to 2014 ~10%
nShips 2014 ~ 96 800
This gives est real BDI 2014 = 96800/40000 x 2500
Present Nov 2014 quoted BDI = 1306
Ratio = 6050/1306
In other words , about 4/5 of worlds wealth is kept hidden from notice .

9. Estimated GDP from this basis :
GDP est real 2014 = 46.5 x 4.63
                                     = $215 Tr
Compare this to  the estimate of $233  Tr as derived by a completely different method in Appendix B .
Estimated Real Global GDP (2014) : $233 Trillion .
A discrepancy of about 8% . Not bad , taking into account that the data still can be refined .

10 . What does all this mean ?
10.1 The tax base for nation states are crumbling under their feet .
10.2 Stimulatory measures are working , but just not reported . Why kill the goose that lays the golden eggs ?

10.3This is not a conspiracy . Anybody who has the means will act the same way after loss of respect .
Unfortunately , this means a temporary increase in Gini .

10.4 No mega-fortunes can form .
10.5 Ostrum Principles will subsume states .
At least a solution to that pesky 8’th  principle . The State won’t wither away , but will bubble down to local pockets .

Respectfully yours


Appendix A
Worldwide ship traffic up 300 percent since 1992
Global shipping routes crisscross the world’s oceans in this map of shipping lanes derived from a 2008 study of the human impact on marine ecosystems. Maritime traffic along these lanes is also a major source of noise pollution, which is increasingly considered harmful to marine mammals.
The research used satellite data to estimate the number of vessels on the ocean every year between 1992 and 2012. The number of ships traversing the oceans grew by 60 percent between 1992 and 2002. Shipping traffic grew even faster during the second decade of the study, peaking at rate of increase of 10 percent per year in 2011.
Traffic went up in every ocean during the 20 years of the study, except off the coast of Somalia, where increasing piracy has almost completely halted commercial shipping since 2006. In the Indian Ocean, where the world's busiest shipping lanes are located, ship traffic grew by more than 300 percent over the 20-year period, according to the research.
Ships powered by fossil fuels dump oil, fuel and waste into the water and pump exhaust into the air. Shipping is also a major source of noise pollution, which is increasingly considered potentially harmful to marine mammals, said Jean Tournadre, a geophysicist at Ifremer, the French Institute for the Exploitation of the Sea in Plouzane, and the study author.
"I found it quite worrisome that the ship traffic grew so much, even in very remote regions of the world," Tournadre said, "especially when we know that they are the major source of pollution [on the open ocean]."
International trade and the sizes of merchant fleets have both enlarged rapidly over the past two decades, explaining the steep rise in ship traffic, the study reports. The new analysis has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
Burgeoning ship traffic has increased the amount of pollution in the atmosphere, particularly above the Sri Lanka-Sumatra-China shipping lane, where the study notes a 50 percent increase in nitrogen dioxide, a common air pollutant, over the 20-year period.
Tournadre said he hopes the new study will increase scientists' understanding of how human activities are affecting marine ecosystems and improve models of atmospheric pollution in the open ocean.
The new dataset will provide scientists with invaluable insights into the patterns of ship traffic and the traffic's effect on the environment, said Batuhan Osmanoglu, a radar systems engineer at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Green Belt, Md., who was not involved in the study.
"The nice thing about this study is that they have a unique dataset, that maybe we're looking at for the first time," he said. "Whenever you have a unique dataset you can quite easily learn something new."
The new study is the first to track ship traffic on a global scale, Tournadre said. Currently, ship traffic is monitored using the Automatic Identification System (AIS). When vessels are near the coast, they use transponders to send out their location information to other ships and base stations on land. However, the AIS system doesn't work very well when ships are out on the open ocean. Vessels are often out of range of terrestrial base stations or other ships, and few satellites carry the AIS instrumentation necessary to locate vessels from space.
The new method outlined in the study uses altimeters, or instruments that measure altitude, aboard satellites to detect the location of ships at sea, similar to the way these instruments have been used to track icebergs.
The altimeter sends a radar pulse down to Earth from the satellite and constructs an image of the surface based on the time it takes the pulse to bounce back to the instrument and the shape of the pulse when it arrives. The method works similar to throwing a ping pong ball at the ground: if you know the velocity of the ball and the time it takes to bounce back to your hand, then you can calculate how far from the ground you are. The shape of the returning pulse can tell you something about the features on the ground. A smooth target like the ocean will bounce back an expected pulse shape, but if something like an iceberg, island, or ship is present, the shape of the echo will change.
In 2007, Tournadre was poring over hordes of satellite data for signs of icebergs in polar seas, when he noticed an odd shape in the data.
"We had some unconventional data in a region, and careful analysis showed us that it was a lighthouse near shipping lanes," he said. "As we processed the data over the whole globe, we also detected ships."
Tournadre found that the altimetry data accurately reproduced known shipping lanes and could be used to estimate the number of vessels on the ocean worldwide. The study used altimetry data from seven different satellites to map ship traffic from 1992 to 2012.
Using satellite data made it possible to calculate ship traffic for the entire globe, whereas AIS records provide relatively limited coverage in both space and time, Tournadre said. The new method also allowed him to look back at two decades of traffic using archived data, and give independent measurements of ship traffic that were not based on the will or capability of ships to transmit their own positions.
However, Tournadre also cautions that some of the growth he has seen in ship traffic could be overestimated because ships, especially container ships, have become larger over the past two decades and possibly easier to detect with altimetry data.

Appendix B
Economics of Disrespect
Economics of Disrespect .

Andre Willers
17 Nov 2014
Synopsis :
Loss of Respect has profound economic implications . Severe loss of income , capital and heads .

Discussion :
1.Respect .
Who do you Respect ?

2.Once respect is lost , laws are no longer obeyed .
Taxes become nearly impossible to collect except at armed-robbery level .
2.1 Modern West : The Governed had withdrawn consent . (Democracy by vote)
2.2 In China , Mandate of Heaven played the same role .
“The Mandate of Heaven is an ancient Chinese belief and philosophical idea that god (Tian) granted emperors the right to rule based on their ability to govern well and fairly. “
2.3 Celts , norse , Vikings , Amerindians : “He has lost his Luck”
2.4 Ancient Egypt , MiddleEast , Right of Kings , etc : Legitimacy is bestowed by the god(s) . After many disasters , the Gods have turned against him (Cf Akhnaton)

3.If the ruler does not perform , he (or his dynasty) gets the old heave-ho .
The mechanisms vary as per the society , but is exceptional that a whole population will follow a ruler into extinction  .

4.The steps :
4.1 Loss of Respect .
4.2 Loss of Fear
4.3 Active Defiance
4.4 Refusal to pay Taxes .
    4.4.1 Diversion of Ex-Taxes into Alternative Economy (this is Black Market , smuggling , informal sector , etc)
4.5 Armed resistance to tax collectors .
    4.5.1 This is funded by higher returns from efficiencies of informal sector . Near zero overheads .
4.6 Guerilla War
4.7 Full scale rebellion .
4.8 New Dynasty/King/President/Chief .
4.9 The cycle repeats .

5. New Alternative Economy : The Ostrum Principles .
The old formal Sector is simply ignored .

6.Estimate from fundamental principles :
If present societies are somewhere on the scale of 4.4 – 4.7  as above , then one would expect tax evasion to be fairly mature .
If the old society still exists , it must still have access to taxes on the Reserve in the economy . That is 1/3 of Real GDP

Estimated Real Global GDP (2014) : $233 Trillion .

6.1Formal global GDP 2014 ( )   $77.6 Tr  (1/3)
6.2Informal Global GDP est from Reserve Principles( )  $155.2 Tr (2/3)
6.3Total Global Economy 2014                                                                                                             $232.8 Tr  (3/3)

7. Ostrum Societies are Terminators .
The cycle does not repeat once this stage has been reached .
on how a true Terminator works . Terminators prevent a recurrence .

8.Ostrum societies outperforms traditional ones once the Dunbar Limit has been exceeded.
This displaces the old paradigms , as well as prevents any recurrence .

9. Historically :
Any minority group lording it over the majority always enforced Respect .
Examples are everywhere
Sir , Massa , Boss , Baas , Magister , etc , etc . As old and as nauseating as history .
They knew full well that any insolence is the first step to their ruin .

10. Where are we in Nov 2014 ?
Economic dominance is the frailest of masterships .
The coming Deflation is going to be bad for middle and upper classes  that cannot adapt to the loss of large organizations .
See for an actual case history .

The Global Real Economy is in fair shape .
It is the upper levels of the old Economy that are in deep doo-doo .

11.The New Paradigm will gleefully feast on the old one .
“The tigers of wrath are wiser than the horses of instruction.”― William Blake
This exactly describes a post-revolutionary period .

12. What does all this mean ?
Revolution and rebellion . Respect has been lost . The rest follows .

13.If you are SuperRich , get unrich fast . Like Gates and Buffett . Sheer survival for their grandchildren
A multi-billionaire’s cautionary .

And the Bilderbergers , Illuminati , etc ?
Any Washington , Napoleon , Trotsky , Ataturk  etc can and have seen them off .

 George Washington made short work of the Illuminati

14. The ordinary person ?
Get any practical skill you can .
The intelligentsia have proven themselves incompetent to run even a simple society .
So the society will go simple .
Plumbing , nursing , beautician ,  any  personal service .
Robots will be making everything . We are looking at a Leisure Consumption society with no idea of how to do it .
So , teach it .
This is what Kim Kardashian is doing . Pay attention !  You will need it .
See Appendix K .

Bespoke anything .

Insolently Yours
Andre .
Appendix K
The notorious Kardashian Appendage .

The K Guide to Leisure Consumption .
From Kant’s secret manuscript “The Critique of Pure Un-Reason “ ,


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