Andre Willers .
23 May 2014
Team Strategies are more important than individual skills in soccer . Dynamic Random Optimized Position (DROP) soccer strategies can take a team to the top .
1.The Scoring rate is nearly random .
See analysis in Appendix AA
The probability P(0) of scoring from an attempt at goal from 25 meters is P(0) ~ 0.072768 .
Actual experience closely matches this .
2.We now treat all passes , and hence ball position as random .
3.The optimal magic scoring area is the half-circle with radius 25 m from the center of the goal .
4.The probability p(1) of the ball being in this hemi-circle :
P(1)= 0.5 x pi x (25)^2 / (105 x 68) … where the sides of the standard internation soccer pitch .
P(1) = 0.137499678
5. The probability of a player picking up the ball for a goal shot inside the Magic Hemicircle (P(2) ):
P(2) = 0.0512 as calculated below .
Players took possession of the ball with about 4m of space. Outside midfielders received the ball with more space (5m) while outside defenders had the least space (3m).
A player with all-around situational awareness thus has a critical ball space of pi x (4)^2 = 50.265 square meters around him
P(2) = 50.265 / (0.5 x pi x (25)^2 )
6. The probability of a random goal P(3) by a single player at random :
Actually in a professional soccer game the average is something between 400 and 450, with 500 being on the higher end.
The ball has to be passed to end up anywhere . Remember , we posit randomness .
So , take 450 passes (chances to end up anywhere) as average
P(3) = P(0) x P(1) x P(2) x 450
= 0.072768 x 0.0512 x 0.137499678 x 450
= 0.0005122859 x 450
7.What does this mean ?
It means that team strategy is far more important than an individual player’s skills .
It means that a player has to be in the Magic Hemicircle 1/0.230528655 ~ 4.338 times during play to score one goal , play being the 450 passes .
8. Strategic enhancement :
8.1 Increase the number of passes . Just kick the ball . Anywhere , as often as possible .
8.2 Loiter as many players as possible in Magic Hemicircle with orders to just kick at the goal the moment they got the ball .
There are many optimized loitering patterns .
Today , actual usage is in the multiple thousands in drone missions . Think of your player as a drone
location priorities, the arcs model the flight path from one target location to the other, and the ... In this specific case the tours of the multiple UAVs are optimized over and around the ... In this section we will provide some background on robust optimization theory that will be used ..... a rectangular area of size 15 by 15 units.
Of course , it works the other way as well .
A very good soccer player would be very good as a drone pilot .
But I doubt if they would pay as well .
However , drone jockeys would be a fertile field for recruitment of soccer players .
So , if you are a very good drone jockey , you can become a rich and famous soccer player with trophy girlfriends dripping off you .
8.3 Increase situational awareness of players ( P(2) ) . This is where most of the skill of present high-priced players lie . See drone jockeys above .
9.Relative advantage :
A fascinating arms race will ensue . Randomness(and team strategies) vs skill(individuals in teams) .
The Beautiful Game Strikes again !
Rugby might be a thugs game , but soccer is a Stiletto game .
Sunday, January 05, 2014
A passion for the Beautiful Game
5 Jan 2013
The goal is put a ball inside a small area . This is a brutally simplistic analysis .
1.Goal area : 2.44 m by 7.32 m = 17.86 square meters . This is fixed .
1.1 The area of possible hits on the goal line is Pi*r^2 /2 . A half circle from the shot point .
This is (25/2)^2 * pi /2 = 245.4369 square meters from 25 meters .
2.What is the probability of random shots from within a 25 meters (yards) of the goal of getting inside the goalposts ?
It is 17.86 / 245.4369 = 0.072768
3.The number of shots at the goal in matches :
The average numbers of shots at goal are 8-18
The average scores are 2-3 .
4.On random probability , we expect 0.072768 * (8 to 18) = (0.58 to 1.31) goals .
That is mostly a draw (0-0) or (1-0) win
5. We have an actual score of 2-3 goals per match (either side) on certain matches . But also many draws .
6. What gives ?
The goal scoring is nearly random .
While this lends a certain charm to the game , maybe winning now and then would be nice .
7. Optimal strategy : decrease the losing area around the goal post .
Get as close as possible and shoot repeatedly .
8. Always try to keep the ball in play within 25 yards of the goal post . Try as many goal shots as possible . Never mind if the player thinks it would succeed . Just do it . The results are chaotic in any case . Make the odds work in your favour .
9.Allocation of resources :
Defence : 1/3 , Offence 2/3 is optimal .
The aim is to win , not prevent losing .
10 Get lucky players .
May the best side win !