DROP Soccer.

Andre Willers .

23 May 2014

Synopsis :

Team Strategies are more important than individual skills in
soccer . Dynamic Random Optimized Position (DROP) soccer strategies can take a
team to the top .

Discussion :

1.The Scoring rate is nearly random .

See analysis in Appendix AA

The probability P(0) of scoring from an attempt at goal from
25 meters is P(0) ~ 0.072768 .

Actual experience closely matches this .

2.We now treat all passes , and hence ball position as
random .

3.The optimal magic scoring area is the half-circle with
radius 25 m from the center of the goal .

4.The probability p(1) of the ball being in this hemi-circle
:

P(1)= 0.5 x pi x (25)^2
/ (105 x 68) … where the sides of
the standard internation soccer pitch .

P(1) = 0.137499678

5. The probability of a player picking up the ball for a
goal shot inside the Magic Hemicircle (P(2) ):

P(2) = 0.0512 as calculated below .

Players took possession of the ball with about 4m of space.
Outside midfielders received the ball with more space (5m) while outside
defenders had the least space (3m).

A player with all-around situational awareness thus has a
critical ball space of pi x (4)^2 = 50.265 square meters around him

P(2) = 50.265 / (0.5 x pi x (25)^2 )

= 0.137499678

6. The probability of a random goal P(3) by a single player
at random :

Actually in a professional soccer game the average is
something between 400 and 450, with 500 being on the higher end.

The ball has to be passed to end up anywhere . Remember , we
posit randomness .

So , take 450 passes (chances to end up anywhere) as average

P(3) = P(0) x P(1) x P(2) x 450

= 0.072768 x 0.0512
x 0.137499678 x 450

= 0.0005122859
x 450

= 0.230528655

7.What does this mean ?

It means that team strategy is far more important than an individual
player’s skills .

It means that a player has to be in the Magic Hemicircle 1/0.230528655
~ 4.338 times during play to
score one goal , play being the 450 passes .

8. Strategic enhancement :

8.1 Increase the number of passes . Just kick the ball .
Anywhere , as often as possible .

8.2 Loiter as many players as possible in Magic Hemicircle
with orders to just kick at the goal the moment they got the ball .

There are many optimized loitering patterns .

Today , actual usage is in the multiple thousands in drone
missions . Think of your player as a drone

xxx

Eg

repub.eur.nl/pub/22802/EI2011-07.pdf

by L Evers - 2011 - Cited by 9 - Related articles

location priorities, the arcs
model the

**flight path**from one**target**location to the other, and the ... In this specific case the tours of the multiple UAVs are**optimized over**and around the ... In this section we will provide some background on robust**optimization theory**that will be used ..... a**rectangular**area of size 15 by 15 units.
xxx

Of course , it works the other way as well .

A very good soccer player would be very good as a drone
pilot .

But I doubt if they would pay as well .

However , drone jockeys would be a fertile field for
recruitment of soccer players .

So , if you are a very good drone jockey , you can become a
rich and famous soccer player with trophy girlfriends dripping off you .

8.3 Increase situational awareness of players ( P(2) ) .
This is where most of the skill of present high-priced players lie . See drone
jockeys above .

9.Relative advantage :

A fascinating arms race will ensue . Randomness(and team
strategies) vs skill(individuals in teams) .

The Beautiful Game Strikes again !

Rugby might be a thugs game , but soccer is a Stiletto game
.

Andre

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##
Appendix AA

##
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/01/optimizing-soccer.html

##
Sunday,
January 05, 2014

Optimizing Soccer.

A
passion for the Beautiful Game

Andre Willers

5 Jan 2013

Synopsis :

The goal is put a ball inside a small area . This
is a brutally simplistic analysis .

Discussion :

1.Goal area : 2.44 m by 7.32 m = 17.86 square
meters . This is fixed .

1.1 The area of possible hits on the goal line is
Pi*r^2 /2 . A half circle from the shot point .

This is (25/2)^2 * pi /2 = 245.4369 square meters
from 25 meters .

2.What is the probability of random shots from
within a 25 meters (yards) of the goal of getting inside the goalposts ?

It is 17.86 / 245.4369 = 0.072768

3.The number of shots at the goal in matches :

The average numbers of shots at goal are 8-18

The average scores are 2-3 .

4.On random probability , we expect 0.072768 * (8
to 18) = (0.58 to 1.31) goals .

That is mostly a draw (0-0) or (1-0) win

5. We have an actual score of 2-3 goals per
match (either side) on certain matches . But also many draws .

6. What gives ?

The goal scoring is nearly random .

While this lends a certain charm to the game ,
maybe winning now and then would be nice .

7. Optimal strategy : decrease the losing area
around the goal post .

Get as close as possible and shoot repeatedly .

8. Always try to keep the ball in play within 25
yards of the goal post . Try as many goal shots as possible . Never mind if the
player thinks it would succeed . Just do it . The results are chaotic in any
case . Make the odds work in your favour .

9.Allocation of resources :

Defence : 1/3 , Offence 2/3 is optimal
.

The aim is to win , not prevent losing .

10 Get lucky players .

May the best side win !

Andre

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