25 Jan 2015
Greece Exit from the Euro will be a messy affair . Greece will probably enter Russia’s sphere of influence . Turkey will become aggressive .
1.Read a really excellent analysis of how to exit the Eurozone (It won the Wolfson prize , and will form the basis for any state wanting to exit the euro . The full text can be found at the following link :
2.A brief summation :
“The winning proposal argued that a member wishing to exit should introduce a new currency and default on a large part of its debts. The net effect, the proposal claimed, would be positive for growth and prosperity. It also called for keeping the euro for small transactions and for a short period of time after the exit from the Eurozone, along with a strict regime of inflation-targeting and tough fiscal rules monitored by "independent experts." “
3. See Appendix A for ideal Timetable .
Unfortunately , everybody knows about it , so it has to be accelerated .
Else there are going to be massive bank-runs and Euro instability .
This has already started : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-25/greek-deposit-outflows-soar-run-syriza-victory
D-Day might be as early as tomorrow , Monday 26 Jan 2015 if Syriza is on the ball .
Especially if they take up the Russian offer .
4.The Russian offer :
“on Jan. 16 the Eurasian power offered the beleaguered nation of Greece a way out of their own financial straits if they voluntarily leave the EU and sign on with the new Eurasian Economic Union.
Greece, along with several other European countries known in the financial world as the PIIGS (Portugal, Iceland, Ireland, Greece, and Spain), have been at the heart of the financial problems that have plagued the European Union since the credit crisis of 2008. “
If this exit goes reasonably well (with Russian and Chinese help) , then the other PIIGS will be sorely tempted to join in .
6. This will make WW 2.75 much more probable .
7. Extreme speed of events to be expected .
The faster , the less mess .
Hopefully , Syriza have their plans ready . They had long enough warning and a blueprint .
8. Some effects in Greece:
8.1 Banks closed
8.2 Credit cards and ATM’s inoperative .
8.3 Euro’s not acceptable as cash .
Hyper-Gresham’s Law : Everybody will want to spend Euro’s as quick as possible , because it might be replaced or rendered valueless by fiat (the problem with fiat currencies is that the same fiat that made them , can unfiat them) . Or worse , the contagion effect might collapse the whole Euro , a scenario not as farfetched as it may seem
(France or Germany might defect from the Euro . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/05/belarus-and-european-instability.html )
8.4 If the Drachma is not declared , Greece will then default to USD or (Ruble , Yuan) .
Like Zimbabwe , whose legal currencies are USD , Yuan , ZAR .
8.5 Greece will tend to the Russian sphere . They nearly voted the Communists into power after WW II (and would have , if not for CIA intervention ) . There is a massive sense of betrayal by the West .
There will be some very unhappy people about this :
8.5.1 NATO and the US
8.5.2 Turkey , who will feel hemmed in by enemies (Russia , Isis)
If Greece moves too slowly (which is likely with politicians) , one or both of these entities will mobilize against them .
There is a lot of ancient historical enmity between Turkey and Greece , while the US just likes to break things in a tantrum if it does get it’s way .
Expect escalation of the Civil War in Ukraine , rising tension in the Baltics and actual military adventurism by Turkey (especially in Cyprus)
9. A more graphic summation :
10. “Magnificent in peril , undone by Victory”
About sums up Greek history for the last three millennia .
For example , see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sicilian_Expedition
11. Got your refuge monastery picked out ?
“Athos the Mt.
Too much St.”
But did you know about http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_monastery ?
A double monastery (also double house) is a monastery combining a separate community of monks and one of nuns, joined in one institution.[a
Like co-ed schools . Humour in the term “lay brother” of such an institution shows low minds in need of spiritual guidance .
Mainly nuns , but …
“The Brigittine Monks are located in Amity, Oregon, at the Monastery of Our Lady of Consolation. Founded on 16 March 1976, by Brother Benedict Kirby, O.Ss.S., it is the only Brigittine monastery of men in the world and the first since the nineteenth century when they were dispersed, largely due to the European wars. The monks here do not ordinarily receive Holy Orders, following the original pattern of monasticism. The monastery has the canonical status of a priory sui juris (one which is autonomous) and is supported mainly through sales of their chocolate fudges and truffles.”
Every oligarch should have one .
7.2 Indicative timetable
With D-Day defined as the day when the drachma formally replaces the euro as
the national currency of Greece, our indicative recommended timetable is:
D-Day minus no more than one month: Key officials plan the exit in secret.
Capital controls implemented immediately and plan accelerated if news leaks out.
D-Day minus three days (Friday): Notification of partners in the euro-zone and
other international monetary organisations. Followed shortly afterwards by public
announcement that the changeover to the new currency will take place on D-Day.
Closure of domestic banks and financial markets.
Over the weekend: Authorities announce new policy regime including inflation
targeting, tough fiscal rules and outlawing of wage indexation. Government
redenominates its debt and starts negotiations over the terms of this debt. Legal
issues clarified as far as possible, with plan announced for resolution of those
issues that remain. Commissioning of new notes and coins.
D-Day (Monday): At 00:01 hours, the drachma is introduced at parity with the
euro. All domestic wages, prices and other monetary values converted 1-for-1
from the euro to the drachma. Euro notes and coins remain in use for small
D-Day or shortly afterwards: Domestic banks and financial markets reopened.
Any other capital controls lifted as soon as practicable. Negotiations concluded on
outstanding legal and other issues raised by redenomination.
Within 3 to 6 months: Sufficient notes and coins available in the new currency for
the euro to cease to be legal tender in the exiting country. Conversion completed.