Thursday, January 22, 2015

Euro QE by KISS


Andre Willers
22 Jan 2015
Dismantling of the Euro to more manageable chunks (UK–Euro model). QE will have negligible economic effect on the EU .
Russia or Turkey will pick up the pieces that break off due to mismanagement .

Discussion :
1.We look at the Euro as an asset backed formal currency , see the effect of QE .
Then we look at the Real Economy , and see the effects there .
Then a quick peek at the future.

KISS = Keep It Simple Stupid .

2.Euro’s as money
31.439 Trillion euros .

About 90.9 % in 2014
Debt is then 0.909x 31.439= 28.578 Trillion

60 Billion Euros per month . An additional 0.72 Trillion euros per annum.
The annual rate of new debt creation = 0.72/28.578 = 0.02519  (~2.5%)

5.This is used to buy bonds , but the QE is not derived from savings , but is fiat money.
This should then be properly classified as a dilution of the currency , not an asset .
Also better known as inflation .
It is no accident that this new debt creation rate of 2.5% is close to the desired inflation rate of 2% .

The idea is to stimulate demand with new loans , that will eventually lead to a mild inflation .

Unfortunately the bank executives can make more money by inflating asset bubbles using the fiat money
than lending to the business enterprises .
The surprising other reason is lack of demand for new capital . See the Economics of Disrespect below for why.

6.Double Whammy :
Owners of shares get richer (income inequality increases) and economic activity slows because of capital starvation , as non-QE money chases the bubbles as well (in the formal sector)

7.Saved by the Economics of Disrespect .
The real economy is about thrice the size of the reported one .

8.Real Euro figures:
Euro’s = 31.439 x 3 = 94.317 Tr   (the hidden wealth is in the form of promissory notes and understandings –equivalent to bonds)
Debt remains as 28.578 Tr  (this gives a real debt/GDP ratio of 30%)
The cost of capital is negative , as lots of “illegal” money look for productive homes .
So a bank would find it hard to lend money to a SMME , even if it wanted to.
To make a dent , the QE would have to been at least three times larger .
As it is , the QE will make a few oligarchs a little bit richer , and destroy the Central Banks .

9.Armageddon ?
Only for the house of cards in Brussels.
Without interference, it is doubtful whether the EU will disintegrate .
Unfortunately , they made an enemy of Russia . And Russia is now actively interfering .
Upping the stakes.

It boils down to an old problem : Russia or Turkey .
Russia has been an ally to the West in three major , to-the-hilt-wars (Napoleonic , WW I , WW II))
Turkey (Ottoman Empire) : has never been an ally . Always enemy or neutral .

Expect interference from Turkey
(who is still being blocked from joining the EU . Old memories do not die in that part of the world .)

10.An interesting aside:
All this sequestering of QE money in the Bank-CentralBank loop is an ideal opportunity for currency reform .
Lop off some zeroes without disturbing the real economy .
Like they did with French Francs , Marks , Rubles , etc .
See the psychological effect.
New ruble (1 January 1998-present)[edit]
The ruble was redenominated on 1 January 1998, with one new ruble equaling 1,000 old rubles. The redenomination was a purely psychological step that did not solve the fundamental economic problems faced by the Russian economy at the time, and the currency was devalued in August 1998 following the 1998 Russian financial crisis. The ruble lost 70% of its value against the U.S. dollar in the six months following this financial crisis.
In November 2004, the authorities of Dimitrovgrad (Ulyanovsk Oblast) erected a five-meter monument to the ruble.
On 23 November 2010, at a meeting of the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, it was announced that Russia and China have decided to use their own national currencies forbilateral trade, instead of the U.S. dollar. 

The USD can do with a facelift . It is kinda sagging around the jowls . The Ruble looked much better after its reduction .
Psychology and expectation is everything .

11.An even more interesting aside :
Instead of lopping off zeroes , add some zeroes . Eg . a $100 for $1 .
Technically it is just re-labelling , but psychologically ?
It should cure deflation .
But I cannot find an example of where currency was revalued upward : the actual printed money .
(The British pound circa 1840-1860 could have done with a upward revaluation , but it was pegged to gold .)
They usually float it , or hope it goes away by spending more frivolously .

11.1 The Singularity :
As wealth creation grows faster than monetary creation , (as is now) , deflation occurs .
This does not suit vested interests with large commitments in obsolete industries .
Hence the present fancy footwork in the financial community .
But all they do is train everybody to lie . Everybody .
Humans are a lying species , but they have excelled themselves .

The wealth creation goes on inexorably .

11.2 Swop old currency for new .
Instead of QE printing , simply swap an old Euro(1) for a new Euro(2) . Then repeat annually or more frequently as things change more rapidly .

“Grasping all , they lose all”



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