Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Humans should have been 22% richer in 2010.

Andre Willers
12 Feb 2014 .
Synopsis :
Wealth being measured as Energy usage per capita per year , things went wrong about 1970 . We should all have been richer by 22% in 2010 compared to our present state .
Discussion :
2.Figure 2 says it all . Copied here for your convenience .

As a rough estimate , annual per capita energy usage increased by about 35 GJ/pa  between 1920 to 1970 .
This gives an increase of 0.7 GJ per year . Thus , we should be consuming in 2010  GJ/pa per capita  0.7x40 +70 = 98 .
The actual figure is 80 GJ per capita . This is a 22.5% loss . This is over the whole planetary population . Huge .
3. Breaking it down per nation , some became drastically poorer , with concomitant unemployment figures .
USA , former USSR were the big losers .
See fig 7

4. What happened ?
My best estimate is that the cancellation of the Moon program and space-exploration had severe chaotic ripple effects .
This was no small butterfly !
For example , lack of proper orbital surveillance led to the surprise of the Yom Kippur war . This led directly to the OPEC oil boycott and the huge increase in energy prices .
Or , 9/11 would not even have been planned . Air Traffic control would have been from orbit , not the pathetic klutch it is still now .
5. What now ?
World GDP ~ $50 Trn
We should have been richer by 0.225x50 ~ $10 Trn
Quantitive Easing ~ $3Trn
If QE approaches 10 to 12 $Trn , really bad chaotic effects will appear . Essentially , the system would have run out of reserves .
Something like terminal Cheyne-Stoke Respirations: the change in the rhythm or breathing pattern noted in the end-phase of life. The irregular pattern is a shallow pant followed by periods of not breathing.
It is systemic effect , found in all chaotic systems nearing a phase-transition .
In stock-market terms , rapidly decreasing frequency of log-periods , with sideways flats . The good doctors interfere , here the Plunge Protector Teams . The end is the same , just slower and more agonizing .
6. What to do ?
Get into space in a hurry .
The system still has sufficient reserves .
Or else you are all toast .
Literally .
As humans turn Earth into another Venus .
Then the per capita worth of humans will be $0 .
A poor return .

Andre .


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